funreproulette|中金：部分外资转为流入价值型资金已有部分回流

Politics
2024-05-05

Original CICC strategies such as Liu Gang and Wang Muyao

Abstract

Notable changes in the global funding side this week are: 1) the EPFR funding data we tracked showFunreprouletteAs of this Wednesday (May 1)FunreprouletteOverseas active funds still showed outflows from A shares and Hong Kong stocks, although the scale of outflows was significantly smaller than that of the previous week; 2) in terms of connectivity, capital inflows continued in the north and accelerated in the south; 3) in global markets, stock and bond markets maintained inflows, money markets continued to outflow but outflows significantly narrowed; 4) US stocks and Japan turned into inflows, while developed Europe and emerging markets continued to outflow.

In terms of domestic capital, Hong Kong stocks have risen sharply, and some foreign capital has turned into inflows. The Hong Kong stock market rose strongly again this week, with the Hang Seng Technology and Hang Seng Index up 6% respectively.Funreproulette.8% and 4Funreproulette.7%. Southbound funds maintained inflows during the two trading days of the opening of Unicom, totaling HK $6 billion. It is worth noting that southbound funds were absent in the second half of the May Day holiday, and the rally in the Hong Kong stock market continued, indicating that this round of rebound in Hong Kong stocks is more supported by foreign capital. As of Wednesday (April 25-May 1), EPFR overseas active capital outflows from Hong Kong shares of US $190 million, continued to narrow from last week's US $310 million. In terms of disassembly, active global funds turned into Chinese stocks of $27 million this week, while passive global funds and global emerging market funds turned into $41 million and $40 million, respectively, indicating that some value funds have returned. In addition, as of the end of March, the active funds of various funds have also rebounded to varying degrees compared with the allocation of Chinese stocks at the end of December compared with the benchmark. However, the reallocation of long-term funds still needs to be matched by improved fundamentals, especially fiscal policy to deal with the current problems of falling inflation and credit contraction.

In terms of global capital, active foreign capital flows into the Indian and Japanese markets. As of Wednesday (April 25-May 1), active foreign capital inflows into the Indian market continued this week, and the scale increased ($110 million vs. The previous week inflows of $40 million); for Japanese stocks, active foreign capital inflows turned to $140 million this week, while passive foreign capital inflows continued to reach $330 million. In addition, after three consecutive weeks of outflows from the US stock market, active foreign investment turned into US $1.12 billion this week, while passive foreign capital also accelerated its inflow of US $2.14 billion.

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Part of foreign capital turns into inflow

Chinese market

Overseas capital: active foreign capital outflow has narrowed substantially

As of Wednesday (April 25-May 1), active foreign investment in A shares continued to outflow $90 million (vs. Last week, $180 million), passive capital outflow of $140 million, overall outflow of $230 million (vs. Net outflow of $610 million last week) At the same time, overseas capital outflows from Hong Kong stocks and ADR were US $260 million (vs. A net outflow of US $1.03 billion last week), including an active outflow of US $190 million (vs. Us $310 million last week) and an outflow of passive funds of US $70 million.

Interconnection funds: continuous inflows in the north and accelerated inflows in the south

Northward average daily inflows narrowed, non-bank finance, pharmaceutical biology and food and beverage holdings increased more. This week (April 29-May 3) Unicom opened only on Monday and Tuesday, with a total northbound capital inflow of 2.28 billion yuan, or an average daily inflow of 1.14 billion yuan (vs. The previous week, the average daily outflow was 5.16 billion yuan). From a sub-industry point of view, the market value of shares held by non-bank finance, pharmaceutical biology and food and beverage sectors rose more, while that of banks, household appliances and other sectors fell. In terms of individual stocks, northbound funds this week increased their holdings in Ningde era, China Merchants Bank and Mindray Medical, while reducing their holdings in Guodian Nanrui, Daqin Railway and focus Media.

The inflow accelerated southward, with diversified finance and real estate leading the way. During the two trading days of the opening of Unicom this week, southbound inflows totaled HK $6 billion, with an average daily inflow of HK $3 billion (vs. The previous week's daily inflow averaged HK $2.06 billion). At the industry level, the market value of stocks held by multiple financial and real estate sectors led the rise. In terms of individual stocks, southbound funds increased their holdings in Bank of China, HKEx and Zhongtong Express, but reduced their holdings in Meituan, HSBC Holdings and Longhu Group.

Global market

Cross-market and asset: us stocks and Japan turn into inflows, while developed Europe and emerging markets continue to outflow. In terms of active foreign investment, US stocks shifted to $1.122 billion this week (vs. Last week, $2.738 billion), developed Europe continued to flow $923 million (vs. Last week, $2.262 billion), Japanese stocks turned to $136 million (vs. Last week, $91 million), and emerging markets continued to flow $633 million (vs. Last week, $1,084 million). On the asset side, global stocks and bonds continued to flow in and money markets continued to outflow.

Allocation ratio: as of March 31, the proportion of active funds allocated to China was about 0.2% lower than the benchmark. Since 2021, the global active fund has shifted from over-allocation to low-allocation for China and India, while South Korea has remained over-equipped and Japan has declined. Since January 2022, the proportion of allocation in China has decreased significantly (- 0.2%), while that in the United Kingdom (+ 1.1%), France (+ 0.6%) and Japan (+ 0.2%) has been increased significantly. In terms of regional types, funds from Europe are the main outflow; at the plate level, overseas funds are over-matched to China's health care, consumption, semiconductors and hardware, capital goods, and low to the Internet, finance and real estate.